In a shocking turn of events, Apple’s once-promising self-driving car project has come to a screeching halt. Mark Gurman on Apple’s car plans: “It was about to launch the Apple Watch, which it thought would crush the Swiss watch market. Where did Apple go wrong, and what can we learn from their autonomous vehicle misadventure?
Apple’s Autonomous Car Vision: Skipping Straight to the iPhone X
When Apple first set out to revolutionize the automotive industry nearly a decade ago, they had two paths to choose from: create a more modest electric vehicle with limited self-driving capabilities, or go all-in on a fully autonomous, steering wheel-free design that would change the world. In true Apple fashion, they opted for the latter.
At the time, Apple’s confidence was sky-high. They had just disrupted the smartphone, tablet, and music playback markets, and were on the cusp of launching the Apple Watch, which they believed would give the Swiss watch industry a run for its money. Riding this wave of success, Apple wanted to make a similar splash in the automotive world.
The problem? They aimed too high, too fast. As one insider put it, “It was as if Apple had tried to skip all the early iPhone models and jump right to the iPhone X.” Instead of starting with a solid foundation – a well-designed, Apple-ecosystem-integrated car with a fantastic user interface – they bet the farm on a Level 5, fully autonomous vehicle that would render the steering wheel obsolete.
As Apple poured billions into developing their Level 5 self-driving system, they failed to recognize that the automotive industry was still years, if not decades, away from cracking this challenge. By the time they realized their mistake, it was too late. The design work had focused entirely on a car without traditional controls, and the die was cast.
Compounding the issue were concerns over the project’s astronomical costs, the inevitably high price tag for consumers, and the razor-thin profit margins inherent to the automotive industry. Add to that the indecisiveness among Apple’s executive team and the complex supply chain challenges, and you have a recipe for disaster.
The Importance of Incremental Innovation
Apple’s previous successes, from the iPhone to the Apple Watch, all followed a similar playbook: start with a solid foundation and gradually build upon it. The first iPhone lacked 3G, early iPods didn’t have color screens, and the original Apple Watch wasn’t even waterproof. But each iteration improved upon the last, ultimately leading to the game-changing devices we know and love today.
Had Apple applied this incremental approach to their car project, they might have had a fighting chance. By focusing on creating a great car first and foremost – one with Apple’s signature design flair, seamless ecosystem integration, and a delightful user experience – they could have gotten something to market, collected valuable data, and then worked on developing a viable self-driving platform over time.
As for whether Apple believes Level 5 autonomy is attainable by anyone, only time will tell. Tesla’s Elon Musk has expressed confidence in achieving fully autonomous Robotaxis without steering wheels, Tesla also has a vast trove of real-world driving data to work with. Apple, on the other hand, may have realized that their dream of a steering wheel-free future was simply too far ahead of its time.
In the end, Apple’s autonomous car misadventure serves as a cautionary tale about the perils of overreaching and underestimating the challenges of entering a complex, well-established industry. While their hubris may have gotten the best of them this time around, it’s hard to count Apple out entirely. After all, they have a history of learning from their mistakes and coming back stronger than ever.