When it comes to Tesla’s future, the battle lines between bullish investors and skeptical Wall Street analysts seem eternally drawn. But a new investor note is shedding light on a potentially radical strategy – going all-in on robotaxis over traditional personal car sales.
The mind behind this provocative take is James Douma, In a new tweet, Jemes Douma laid out a compelling numerology:
“Robotaxi Teslas will drive 5x the miles of personal cars. This is: 5x displaced ICE miles, 5x+ value to users, 5x++ profit to investors.”
He drove the point home by stating “every effort should be made to accelerate the introduction of and maximize the deployment numbers and usage of robotaxi vehicles.” And earning a cosign from Elon Musk himself – “This sounds about right.”
So what exactly is Douma getting at? The thesis seems to be that by deploying an autonomous robotaxi fleet at scale, Tesla could quintuple its impact across profits, environmental benefits, and customer utility compared to selling personal EVs one by one.
It’s a tantalizing idea given the immense potential of mobility services. A robotaxi racking up 100,000+ miles per year could easily outpace a personal car’s typical 12,000 annual miles. More miles equates to more revenue streams from ride-hailing, freight, and delivery services.
There are clear environmental wins too, as more zero-emission Tesla miles displace polluting gas guzzlers. And consumers could enjoy the convenience of autonomy without the burdens of ownership.
Of course, making this robotaxi vision a reality is still many regulatory and technological hurdles away. But James Douma seems to believe it’s worthy of Tesla going all-in, even if it means de-prioritizing personal car sales.
Interestingly, while analysts like Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley still value Tesla’s automotive business, they ascribe just 20% of the company’s projected worth to that segment. The other 80% comes from Tesla’s potential energy and AI/robotics plays.
Clearly, the bullish crowd sees massive upside in fields beyond building and selling consumer EVs. If James Douma’s “5x multiplier” projections pan out, Tesla going full tilt on robotaxis could indeed be a win for profits, the planet, and customers alike. An ambitious but potentially very lucrative path forward.
Related: Elon Musk Wartime CEO mode at Tesla? Tesla Going All In on Robotaxis