Tesla may be heading for a significant year-over-year decline in deliveries this quarter, according to prominent delivery tracking analyst Troy Teslike. His latest projections suggest Tesla will deliver approximately 355,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, noticeably below both analyst consensus and the company’s performance during the same period last year.
Troy projects 355,000 deliveries for Tesla in Q1 2025
Troy, who has maintained an impressive 2.6% average error rate across his previous twelve quarterly predictions, shared his final Tesla delivery estimates ahead of the official announcement. His projection of 355,000 units falls significantly short of the 377,592 average forecast compiled from Tesla’s survey of 27 analysts—a gap that could signal unexpected headwinds for the electric vehicle manufacturer.
More concerning for Tesla investors might be the comparison to Q1 2024, when the company delivered 386,810 vehicles. If Troy’s estimates prove accurate, this would represent an 8.2% year-over-year decrease in deliveries.
The potential delivery shortfall comes at a challenging time for Tesla, which has been navigating intensifying competition in global EV markets, particularly from Chinese manufacturers.
Wall Street will be watching closely when Tesla releases its official delivery numbers, as these figures often drive significant stock price movements.
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